Archive for November, 2011

If The Kids Are United…

Friday, November 25th, 2011

My first #Occupy post. I have been quite restrained over this, haven’t I? AND this post surprisingly is not a rant, but instead looking to build on an interesting pitch…

I like where this guy is coming from, but it needs to be worked into becoming a sustainable application which would actually stack in the world which we all do/will live. For example, you & I may be co-dependent, based on a mutual friendship, but what of the person who made the screen you are reading this message on… & what of their co-dependence on you? This type of co-dependence on each other is based on consumption, not friendship… and unless all consumption is removed from the system globally, what this guy is proposing will break down as soon as any of us need a new “thing” which required the effort of a human that we have no relationship with to create this product. Please don’t get me wrong… for OWS to base their objective on emotional co-dependence I think is a really nice starting point (probably the best I’ve heard yet). It unites instead of alienates people while contributing the concept (& action) of an amazing foundation for a new system to be created on. But what I’d like to work on is developing a sustainable consumption model which factors in equality, in a global community, and is built around what this clip is about, & that’s the real challenge. Hmmmm.

Soup Is Good Food.

Monday, November 21st, 2011

This article was originally written By George Monbiot and published in the Guardian 10th October.

It’s a good read…

If this analysis is correct, a Great Depression is all but inevitable.

I stumbled out into the autumn sunshine, figures ricocheting around in my head, still trying to absorb what I had heard. I felt as if I had just attended a funeral: a funeral at which all of us got buried. I cannot claim to have understood everything in the lecture: Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Theory and the 41-line differential equation were approximately 15.8 metres over my head. But the points I grasped were clear enough. We’re stuffed: stuffed to a degree that scarcely anyone yet appreciates.

Professor Steve Keen was one of the few economists to predict the financial crisis. While the OECD and the US Federal Reserve foresaw a “great moderation”, unprecedented stability and steadily rising wealth, he warned that a crash was bound to happen. Now he warns that the same factors which caused the crash show that what we’ve heard so far is merely the first rumble of the storm. Without a radical change of policy, another Great Depression is all but inevitable.

The problem is spelt out at greater length in the new edition of his book Debunking Economics. Like his lecture, it is marred by some unattractive boasting and jostling. But the graphs and figures it contains provide a more persuasive account of the causes of the crash and of its likely evolution than anything which has yet emerged from Constitution Avenue or Threadneedle Street. This is complicated, but it’s in your interests to understand it. So please bear with me while I do my best to explain.

The official view, as articulated by Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is that both the first Great Depression and the current crisis were caused by a lack of base money. Base money, or M0, is money that the central bank creates. It forms the reserves held by private banks, on the strength of which they issue loans to their clients. This practice is called fractional reserve banking: by issuing amounts of debt several times greater than their reserves, the private banks create money that didn’t exist before. Conventional economic theory predicts that when the central bank raises M0, this triggers a “money multiplier”: private banks generate more credit money (M1, M2 and M3), boosting economic growth and employment.

Bernanke, echoing claims by Milton Friedman, believed that the first Great Depression in the US was propelled by a fall in the supply of M0, which, he said, “reinforced … declines in the money multiplier.” But, Keen shows, there is a weak association between M0 money supply and depression. There were six occasions after World War Two when M0 money supply fell faster than it did in 1928 and 1929. On five of these occasions there was a recession, but nothing resembling the scale of what happened at the end of the 1920s. In some cases unemployment rose when the rate of M0 growth was high and fell when it was low: results which defy Bernanke’s explanation. Steve Keen argues that it’s not changes in M0 which drive unemployment, but unemployment which triggers changes in M0: governments issue more cash when the economy runs into trouble.

He proposes an entirely different explanation for the Great Depression and the current crisis. Both events, he says, were triggered by a collapse in debt-financed demand. Aggregate demand in an economy like ours is composed of GDP plus the change in the level of debt. It is the sudden and extreme change in debt levels that makes demand so volatile and triggers recessions. The higher the level of private debt, relative to GDP, the more unstable the system becomes. And the more of this debt that takes the form of Ponzi finance – borrowing money to fund financial speculation – the worse the impact will be.

Keen shows how, from the late 1960s onwards, private sector debt in the US began to exceed GDP. It built up to wildly unstable levels from the late 1990s, peaking in 2008. The inevitable collapse in this rate of lending pulled down aggregate demand by 14%, triggering recession.

This should be easy enough to see with the benefit of hindsight, but what lends weight to Keen’s analysis is that he saw it with the benefit of foresight. In December 2005, while drafting an expert witness report for a court case, he looked up the ratio of private debt to GDP in his native Australia, to see how it had changed since the 1960s. He was astonished to discover that it had risen exponentially. He then did the same for the United States, with similar results. He immediately raised the alarm: here, he warned, were the conditions for an economic crisis far greater than those of the mid-1970s and early 1990s. A massive speculative bubble was close to bursting point. Needless to say, he was ignored by policy-makers.

Now, he tells us, a failure to address these problems will ensure that this crisis will run and run. The “debt-deflationary forces” unleashed today “are far larger than those that caused the Great Depression.” In the 1920s, private debt rose by 50%. Between 1999 and 2009, it rose by 140%. The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is still much higher than it was when the Great Depression began.

If Keen is right, the crippling sums spent on both sides of the Atlantic on refinancing the banks are a complete waste of money. They have not and they will not kickstart the economy, because M0 money supply is not the determining factor.

President Obama justified the bailout of the banks on the grounds that “a dollar of capital in a bank can actually result in $8 or $10 of loans to families and businesses. So that’s a multiplier effect”. But the money multiplier didn’t happen. The $1.3tn that Bernanke injected scarcely raised the amount of money in circulation: the 110% increase in M0 money led not to the 800 or 1000% increase in M1 money that Obama predicted, but a rise of just 20%. The bail-outs failed because M0 was not the cause of the crisis. The money would have achieved far more had it simply been given to the public. But, as Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy demonstrated over the weekend, governments have learnt nothing from this failure, and seek only to repeat it.

Instead, Keen says, the key to averting or curtailing a second Great Depression is to reduce the levels of private debt, through a unilateral write-off, or jubilee. The irresponsible loans the banks made should not be honoured. This will mean taking many banks into receivership. Otherwise private debt will sort itself out by traditional means: mass bankruptcy, which will generate an even greater crisis.

These are short-term measures. I would like to see them leading to a radical reappraisal of our economic aims and moves to develop a steady-state economy, of the kind proposed by Herman Daly and Tim Jackson. Governments and central bankers now have an unprecedented opportunity to learn from the catastrophic mistakes they’ve made. It is an opportunity they seem determined not to take.

We’ll DO IT LIVE!! (Part #1)

Sunday, November 6th, 2011

Over the coming how ever long, I am going to randomly post ‘chunks’ of what for me are the best songs I’ve ever seen performed live, just because I want to… which is fair enough really, being my blog and all.


Sigur Rós – Popplagið. This track would have to be in the top three best performances I’ve ever witnessed. This is what I imagine dying sounds like. Epicnesss beyond explanation. Buy their albums.

Faith No More – Malpractice. Waaay back in ‘92, Angeldust was my favourite album… and seeing Malpractice performed live was the single most relentless, aggressive and crushing execution of a track I’d ever witnessed. I have been firmly based in Team Patton for 20yrs+, but seeing Angeldust live has always stood head & shoulders above anything else FMN & related Patton subsidiaries turned out (well, maybe excluding this). The footage above is their first gig back after a 11yr hiatus, and thankfully, Malpractice (01:02:00) was well represented. This is the full set of their comeback show. Drink caffeine, and enjoy.

PJ Harvey – Rid Of Me. Serendipity. With two cancelled Australian tours, I (an uber-brutal PJ fanatic to put it mildly) impatiently waited almost 10 years before I got not only to see her play, but tour with her on the Big Day Out festival for 2001. I sat side of stage for a number of her performances, and with each set, I ended up a broken man, curled up underneath a soundboard blubbering uncontrollably at the sheer volume of talent that a single person can possess. For a solo artist to hold a 60,000 strong crowd (who are there to see Limp Bizkit) in broad daylight is truly a skill. The woman is a god… and for good reason.

Slayer – Raining Blood. The first time you see Slayer live, you remember it. And when you remember it, you remember this.

Björk- Thunderbolt. I don’t really now what to say here apart that I have a bais towards this artist, because I love her! But there is a reason why this is so. Biophilia IS the best show I have seen in the last ten years. I remember first seeing her at a festival 18 years ago playing right before The Ramones. She was brilliant then (as were The Ramones), but to watch her evolve through a body of incredible work to now successfully tackle (and nail) a project as wide and deep as Biophilia, is truly awesome.

Fight The Powers That Be.

Sunday, November 6th, 2011

They Can’t Take That Away From Me.

Tuesday, November 1st, 2011

I had the pleasure of hearing Bill Strickland give his TED talk at the Emerge Conference in Saïd Business School – Oxford University this week. This man’s story is kick-ass inspiring stuff, using arts, entrepreneurship and equality to pull kids out of the shit. Check it.